The Wall Street Journal | by Greg Ip | July 2008
A four-year college degree, seen for generations as a ticket to a better life, is no longer enough to guarantee a steadily rising paycheck.
ust ask Bea Dewing. After she earned a bachelor’s degree — her second — in computer science from Maryland’s Frostburg State University in 1986, she enjoyed almost unbroken advances in wages, eventually earning $89,000 a year as a data modeler for Sprint Corp. in Lawrence, Kan. Then, in 2002, Sprint laid her off.
“I thought I might be looking a few weeks or months at the most,” says Ms. Dewing, now 56 years old. Instead she spent the next six years in a career wilderness, starting an Internet café that didn’t succeed, working temporary jobs and low-end positions in data processing, and fruitlessly responding to hundreds of job postings.
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A degree, she says, “isn’t any big guarantee of employment, it’s a basic requirement, a step you have to take to even be considered for many professional jobs.”
For decades, the typical college graduate’s wage rose well above inflation. But no longer. In the economic expansion that began in 2001 and now appears to be ending, the inflation-adjusted wages of the majority of U.S. workers didn’t grow, even among those who went to college. The government’s statistical snapshots show the typical weekly salary of a worker with a bachelor’s degree, adjusted for inflation, didn’t rise last year from 2006 and was 1.7% below the 2001 level.
College-educated workers are more plentiful, more commoditized and more subject to the downsizings that used to be the purview of blue-collar workers only. What employers want from workers nowadays is more narrow, more abstract and less easily learned in college.
To be sure, the average American with a college diploma still earns about 75% more than a worker with a high-school diploma and is less likely to be unemployed. Yet while that so-called college premium is up from 40% in 1979, it is little changed from 2001, according to data compiled by Jared Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute, a liberal Washington think tank.
Most statistics he and other economists use don’t track individual workers over time, but compare annual snapshots of the work force. That said, this trend doesn’t appear due to an influx of lower-paid young workers or falling starting salaries; Mr. Bernstein says when differences in age, race, marital status and place of residence are accounted for, the trend remains the same.
A variety of economic forces are at work here. Globalization and technology have altered the types of skills that earn workers a premium wage; in many cases, those skills aren’t learned in college classrooms. And compared with previous generations, today’s college graduates are far more likely to be competing against educated immigrants and educated workers employed overseas.
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